Market Researcher Boosts LCD-TV Shipment Forecast

iSuppli says declining prices, rising consumer acceptance, and increasingly efficient panel production will all serve to make the market larger than it originally expected.
MANHASSET, N.Y. — In a bit of good news for liquid crystal display (LCD) panel and material suppliers, market research firm iSuppli Corp. has raised its forecast for LCD-TV shipments, citing declining prices, rising consumer acceptance and increasingly efficient panel production.

iSuppli expects global LCD-TV shipments to rise to 61.2 million units in 2009, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 47.2 percent from 8.9 million units in 2004. iSuppli previously forecasted total shipments of 55.1 million units by 2009, rising at a CAGR of 44.1 percent from 2004.

The outlook for 2005 was also raised, with shipments expected to grow to 17.1 million units, up 94 percent from 2004. iSuppli previously predicted growth in 2005 of 88.6 percent to 16.7 million units.

Rising TV shipments would be welcome by LCD panel suppliers, many of which have seen profitability lag and panel prices fall in recent months as a glut of production capacity for Generation 6 and later panels has come online.

“LCD-TVs have experienced faster-than-expected shipments due to increased consumer acceptance and declining prices,” said Riddhi Patel, senior analyst, television systems for iSuppli. “Furthermore, panel makers are expanding their production capacities to fuel demand and encourage greater adoption.”

Prices for LCD-TV panels have fallen substantially during the last two quarters, a trend that will be reflected in lower finished-set prices this year. The average selling price of LCD-TVs sized from 30 to 34 inches size is expected to decline to $1,548 in the fourth quarter, down 22.5 percent from $1,997 the first quarter.