Novell is the wildcard: if they can demonstrate to the courts that they retain ownership of AT&T System V, then SCO has no case.If Novell cannot prove ownership, then SCO will have to prove that IBM violated their license.One way or the other, IBM will not give uptheir rights to AIX. Thus I suspect that Novell is acting as an IBM "proxy" and, if this approach fails,thateither IBM or Novell willbuy SCO outright soIBM'slicense to AIXcan be reinstated.
If I am wrong, IBM will settle out of court before they allow this case to raise doubts among their own customers.
SCO is like the basketball team who knows they can only win by wearing down the competition with stalling tactics. IBM's pockets are deeper than SCO's and everyone knows it!
From one perspective, SCO wins if it ends up with more money in the bank than when they started. They win BIG if they also end up killing off their competition -- Linux -- and thencollecting fees from all existingLinux customers. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely.
I predict that, in the end, SCO will not survive as an independent entity, the GPL will survive in something resembling its present form, and Linux will take its rightful place as another Unix flavor -- with or without Unix code inside.
I have one more thought -- regarding your predictions 4 and 5:
I agree that, in the US, Linux will not pose a threat to the Windows juggernaut in 2004 however, as Windows saturates domestic markets, Microsoft must makeinroads into international marketsin order to maintain its market dominance worldwide.The headlines suggest that a growing number of governments overseas are rejecting Microsoft and its anti-competitive practices.If this trend continues, I expect that Microsoft will see an eroding of its influence as more and more governments (and thus their corporate vendors) turn to Linux distributors for solutions. Whether it is 2004 or 2005, Microsoft is going to be challenged. As you point out, everybody wins in this scenario.
C. Marc Wagner
Services Development Specialist
UITS, Student Technology Centers
Indiana University, Bloomington
Editor's note: The author is not a relative. -- Mitch Wagner
6. MOZILLA WILL NOT GAIN significant market share against Microsoft Internet Explorer, but Mozilla users will continue to love their browser.
Agreed.. those who love it now (God knows why, but I suspect it has something to do with mammoth RAM and CPU installation on their machines) will continue to use it. And let's face it, Mozilla does have some nifty features.
But what about Opera?
We'd appreciate some stats about how this (proprietary, yes, adware, yes) wonderful browser has garnered a fan following who simply love the power given to the user with a few clicks, or even with mouse gestures!
Editor's note: I use Opera myself, but I don't see it gaining significant market share over Microsoft Internet Explorer on desktop PCs in 2004. -- Mitch Wagner
Regarding prediction 3, Linux on desktop of major corporation: too late.
Editor's note: Not quite. I predicted a major pilot, the article you referenced says simply that IBM's CIO is simply encouraging senior managers to use Linux on the desktop. I agree that's a significant development though -- look for an article on the subject on our web site soon. -- Mitch Wagner