Windows Phone Predicted To Overtake iOS By 2015 - InformationWeek
Windows Phone Predicted To Overtake iOS By 2015
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User Rank: Apprentice
1/23/2012 | 7:49:51 PM
re: Windows Phone Predicted To Overtake iOS By 2015
With this kind of announcement, orchestrated behind the scenes by Microsoft and Nokia, Microsoft states their intention to achieve this. What is not clear from your journalistic coverage, however, is that these are their hopes for unit volume rather than consumer dollars and certainly not for profitability. Nokia is the old-style feature phone provider to the third world, and is predicting that by replacing their present product line with products containing WP7 that they can stop their rapid downward trend in the market and hold their sales volume flat.

Of course, their WP7 phones are now being sold free with a new contract at many outlets. This doesn't give much promise for Nokia capturing much market share in dollars.

The fact of the matter is, of course, that WP7 phones will have to produce buyer satisfaction that is the equivalent of iPhone if they are to be sold at equivalent prices, and there seems little hope of that occurring any time soon. This makes it abundantly clear that the prices for Nokia WP7 phones must stay very low for the forseeable future. Thus even if unit volumes meet these rosy projections, Nokia's slide in profitability will continue. That means little money for R&D, and little opportunity for product improvement year to year.

So, even these rosy projections nonetheless presage the imminent collapse of Nokia as a supplier and with it the end of WP7.

Also not clear is that the projections assume that the iPhone 4S and future Apple phones will lose the market advantage they have been demonstrating since the iPhone 4S was introduced. The 4S sales do not represent merely a blip driven by a new product. This is a phone with unique new features that neither Microsoft nor Nokia have announced they will be competitive against. Gone are the days of antennagate holding down the sales of the iPhone 4.

Android sales are feeling the bite from the new iPhone models, low priced iPhone models are making a move to take over the market share that Nokia previously held, and WP7 has no defense against these realities. No one would seriously consider buying a $49 (or even contract for a free, I believe) Lumia 710 when the iPhone 4 is priced at $49. No one will consider the Lumia 900 to be the equivalent of an iPhone 4S or iPhone 5. No amount of Microsoft dollars will save Nokia now. Nokia's last hope was to try to compete against Samsung and others manufacturing Android phones, but any effort in that direction now is simply too little, too late.
User Rank: Apprentice
1/23/2012 | 6:33:42 PM
re: Windows Phone Predicted To Overtake iOS By 2015
This will be fun to watch. Of course, to get there, MS Phone will have to stop losing marketshare, which it was continuing to do last time I heard. Things that Apple has that will serve as a hedge against this happening:
The App Store
The iPad. Right now this looks like an insurmountable lead in the tablet space
A multi-year head start
More apps
Established entrants in Media Player, Phone, Tablet, and laptop and desktop
UI coherence across the above.
A track record of no viruses and hacks on their phone
A fairly predictable upgrade cycle (usually annual)
A fairly predictable cost structure $199, Last year's model $99, two year old model free with plan.
iCloud/iTunes Match
$90 billion in the bank
An amazing 3rd party eco-system around the docking connector

Conventional wisdom is don't bet against Microsoft. I think in this case the market has changed, so I'd take that bet.

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