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Robots: Not The Job Stealers We Feared
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Whoopty
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Whoopty,
User Rank: Ninja
5/24/2016 | 7:51:22 AM
Jobs become easier, not replaced
Robots and AI will take over some jobs eventually, but in the short term and in some cases the long term too, we're going to see more workforces augmented with technology rather than replaced by it. Robots are still a long way from being as versatile as humans and there will always be people willing to pay for quality, hand made products over robot built ones. 

That said, I'm excited by the idea of having less busy work to do because the AI can handle that while I get on with the complicated stuff.
JasonM715
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JasonM715,
User Rank: Apprentice
5/24/2016 | 9:15:34 AM
Wishful thinking in this report
Sorry Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn but over the next 10-20 years - advancements in AI (deep neural networks), robotics and nanotech there will be huge job losses. I am a coder specializing in automation and it's already here.

Just one small example - within the automobile and trucking industries mass automation is ripe and imminent (Google, Daimler, Otto, Tesla's upgradeable features, legislation already passed in states within the US to allow driverless semis, Uber's driverless pilot program in Pittsburgh, etc.). A large number of US jobs are under threat - there are 3.5 million truckers in the US, 233,000 taxi drivers, valet drivers, postal delivery, restaurant delivery, etc. 

The conclusions in the paper are just wishful thinking - it's like watching four kids in a raft 50 feet from the edge of Niagara broadcasting 'it's smooth as glass, we're good!!". Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn would be wise to steep themselves in the the growth of exponential technologies and write about how we are going to successfully transition to a post-employment world.
Michelle
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Michelle,
User Rank: Ninja
5/24/2016 | 9:52:31 AM
Re: Jobs become easier, not replaced
I don't know if I'm looking forward to a future where AI tackles busy work. I think it will take some time before we humans fully accept an AI's capability to handle things.
Broadway0474
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Broadway0474,
User Rank: Ninja
5/24/2016 | 9:29:05 PM
Re: Wishful thinking in this report
Hi Jason, who will be running this "post-employment world"? The machines? The machines owners? The technology you speak of may need to be kept at bay and only incorporated slowly into society if revolution is to be avoided. Think of it like the diamond trade. If the diamond sellers allowed the true available amount of diamonds to enter the markets, the worth of diamonds would plummet. Bad for the few, perhaps good for the rest of us. Conversely, if these "exponential technologies" you speak of flood the workplace and industry, the value of human workers would plummet --- perhaps good for the few who own those workplaces but very bad for all the rest of us.
SaneIT
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SaneIT,
User Rank: Ninja
5/27/2016 | 8:28:51 AM
Re: Jobs become easier, not replaced
"That said, I'm excited by the idea of having less busy work to do because the AI can handle that while I get on with the complicated stuff."

 

I'm going to join you in that excitement.  I have had so many instances over the years where I wish I could tell a machine to do something mundane for me and it just went off on its way taking care of things the way I told it to.  Something as simple as sorting and archiving my email would be nice since that is one of the thing I never seem to get around to because it is boring and time consuming. 

 
JasonM715
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JasonM715,
User Rank: Apprentice
5/27/2016 | 12:35:22 PM
Re: Wishful thinking in this report
Unfortunately, very few people will be running the post-employment world. Check out the article today (5/27/2016) posted on truthdig - Foxconn fired 60,000 workers who are directly replaced by robotic automation. The future is here for better or worse. You are correct regarding social upheaval occurring if government(s) do not take action. The action that is surfacing is granting a Universal Basic Income. To me it was counter-intuitive at first but it appears to be the path forward. I don't see any other way out of this. We are all right in the curve and 5-10 years from now will be wondering how it all changed so quickly and radically. 
Susan Fourtané
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Susan Fourtané,
User Rank: Author
5/28/2016 | 2:14:32 PM
Re: Jobs become easier, not replaced
SaneIT, I have thought about the same many times. Sorting out my email is something I never seem to get around to because there is always something more important to do, or less boring. Whenever I try to do it I am too tired and a boring task doesn't help. I would love to have a little AI helper for this. -Susan
impactnow
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impactnow,
User Rank: Author
5/28/2016 | 11:38:39 PM
Evolution of jobs
Types of robots will steal are largely manual and tedious jobs that are most likely a transition job not a career . As we evolve and the IOT becomes more mature we ultimately will lose redundant manual jobs that require little or no skill . It has happened before and it will continue to happen remember when we all called our broker to place a trade in the stock market , now we can do it from my cell phone in a matter of seconds . Those data entry clerks are go e replaced by smartphones, however new industries have been spawned to support our new technologies . Jobs will evolve and people need to evolve to meet new needs.
Broadway0474
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Broadway0474,
User Rank: Ninja
5/28/2016 | 11:38:44 PM
Re: Wishful thinking in this report
Universal Basic Income? That may fly in a European country, but that will never fly in the USA. Not at first. There will be upheavel, maybe even revolution, at the ballot box or otherwise, and then once even the die-hard free marketers realize that the free market doesnt work for humans anymore, maybe they were come around. Maybe not even then.
Michelle
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Michelle,
User Rank: Ninja
5/29/2016 | 5:59:08 PM
Re: Evolution of jobs
@impactnow This is the vision I hope for in the future. I don't want to see a mass elimnation of jobs in favor of robotic automation that leaves humans without gainful employment. The workplace will change with technology. I hope it moves in a direction that works on many levels. 
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