Re: IoT Market Forecast At $11 Trillion, Report Finds
I'm the type to be skeptical of market forecasts to begin with - even still, there appears to be a little more than usual to be skeptical about here. Cisco's estimations of up to 50 billion or more connected devices by 2020 always seemed a little high to me, and these numbers do too. Both may be for the same reason - they're a little broad on their definition of what to call an IoT device - "digitizing the physical world" could be just about anything. Looking at McKinsey & Company's breakdown, they include things like self-driving cars and 'navigation', which to me says GPS. I don't think IoT should refer strictly to sensors, and no doubt there are connected sensors involved in those applications, but if they're filing all the value there under 'IoT', I think that's a mistake.
It's not just being over-inclusive, either; for retail, they only listed automated checkout, which definitely stands to be improved thanks to IoT and mobile in the coming years - but that leaves out things like digital signage (which is expected to be over $20 billion soon) and connected sensors in the stores that will help drive sales, connect customers, and streamline maintenance. The interplay between these things is exactly what makes IoT valuable, so it seems weird to exclude them. Meanwhile, I wonder how accurate any 'health and wellness' dollar value estimates can really be, and whether overlapping data was properly accounted for across sectors ("cities"/"worksites", etc.). I have no doubt that tons of work went into this report, and tons of value will be derived from most of what's here, but ultimately, $3.9 trillion to $11 trillion seems like a bit much of a gap to be drawing any conclusions from today.