Tech Fail Forecast: Bursting The Next Bubble - InformationWeek

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IT Leadership // Digital Business
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12/28/2015
07:06 AM
Jim Nash
Jim Nash
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Tech Fail Forecast: Bursting The Next Bubble

Fifteen years after the dot-com bubble burst, industry pundits are calling out similar signs of froth in the current tech boom. Here are nine tech ideas, products, excesses, and business models that we expect to look back on in 15 years and ask: "What were we thinking?"
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Unlearned Lesson No. 1
Oh, the drudgery of having to put profit on par with growth. As in 2000 (though to a lesser extent), the clear priority is growth. You'd think we would have learned this lesson by now. 
'If you're losing money on each shoe-of-the-month-club subscriber you sign up, what good does scale really do for you?' asked Eric M. Jackson, CEO of cloud-based business-transaction services firm Caplinked in an interview. That would have been a good question to ponder at eToys, one of the biggest dot-com flameouts. It won with eyes and perished on sales.
(Image: eToys via Scripophily)

Unlearned Lesson No. 1

Oh, the drudgery of having to put profit on par with growth. As in 2000 (though to a lesser extent), the clear priority is growth. You'd think we would have learned this lesson by now.

"If you're losing money on each shoe-of-the-month-club subscriber you sign up, what good does scale really do for you?" asked Eric M. Jackson, CEO of cloud-based business-transaction services firm Caplinked in an interview. That would have been a good question to ponder at eToys, one of the biggest dot-com flameouts. It won with eyes and perished on sales.

(Image: eToys via Scripophily)

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MichaelOFaolain
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MichaelOFaolain,
User Rank: Moderator
12/29/2015 | 2:19:07 PM
Tech Fail Forecast: The Foolishness
When the next bubble bursts, what you have described is just the foolishness that inflates the bubble.

Humans need tangible products for survival - food, clothing, and shelter - plus medical care. Whoever controls those essentials are in position to disrupt the behavior of the rest of us.

If I were an economist I would be using some of that big data to explore the potential impact of having food and clothing production substantially controlled by people in other countries, delivered by a "last minute" supply chain that is easily disrupted.

With every economic cycle comes the nouveau riche with foolish behaviors. With every economic cycle comes the ignorant young who think their ideas are so special they are not subject to the failure side of capitalism.

An adjustment is always required to teach the foolish that the "ordinary" people - not the "geniuses" - must be able to flourish for a new economic trend to have long term meaning.

So far as I can tell, Dan Price, CEO of Gravity Payments, is the only executive to acknowledge publicly that the "big economic picture" is complicated by trendy, extremely narrow aggregation of wealth.

But if you look at the Wikipedia entry "List of recessions in the United States" you realize that what is coming is a normal part of "The American Way" - a failure to understand the importance of "Truth and Justice" to real superheroes.
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