Forrester Research says the video download market will peak this year with $279 million in revenue, up from $98 million last year.
The video download market race has been declared over before the smoke from the starting pistol has dissipated.
Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Wal-Mart are hurtling toward a dead end, according to a new report from Forrester Research, which says the video download market will peak this year with $279 million in revenue, up from $98 million last year.
The research firm has found that only 9% of adults online have ever paid to download a movie or TV show, and that these consumers are "niche media junkies" who "do not represent the vanguard of a rush by mainstream consumers."
"The paid video download market in its current evolutionary state will soon become extinct, despite the fast growth and the millions being spent today," predicted Forrester analyst James McQuivey. "Television and cable networks will shift the bulk of paid downloading to ad-supported streams where they have control of ads and effective audience measurement. The movie studios, whose content only makes up a fraction of today's paid downloads, will put their weight behind subscription models that imitate premium cable channel services."
The moribund download market, according to Forrester, will force Apple to open up Apple TV to the rabble from YouTube and to embrace ad-supported content, just like the Internet-friendly set-top boxes deployed by Comcast and Time Warner.
Paid video download companies CinemaNow and Movielink will shift to providing satellite and telco service providers with video-on-demand content, the study predicts.
Furthermore, the study says the streaming of ad-supported TV shows will surpass DVR use by the end of 2008, much to the delight of advertisers, who have long feared death by commercial-skipping DVR.
The key for media executives, said McQuivey, is "to make video downloading ad-supported and geek-free."
How Enterprises Are Attacking the IT Security EnterpriseTo learn more about what organizations are doing to tackle attacks and threats we surveyed a group of 300 IT and infosec professionals to find out what their biggest IT security challenges are and what they're doing to defend against today's threats. Download the report to see what they're saying.
Infographic: The State of DevOps in 2017Is DevOps helping organizations reduce costs and time-to-market for software releases? What's getting in the way of DevOps adoption? Find out in this InformationWeek and Interop ITX infographic on the state of DevOps in 2017.
Digital Transformation Myths & TruthsTransformation is on every IT organization's to-do list, but effectively transforming IT means a major shift in technology as well as business models and culture. In this IT Trend Report, we examine some of the misconceptions of digital transformation and look at steps you can take to succeed technically and culturally.