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AMD Declares Victory, But Battle Will Continue


Posted by , Dec 13, 2005 04:36 PM

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. has declared itself the winner of its self-proclaimed "dual-core duel challenge" it issued to Intel back in August. Although the win comes in some respects by default, or TKO, as Intel has declined to be drawn into the skirmish, and is indicative of the growing momentum at AMD, the microprocessor championship belt remains in Intel's grasp.

AMD ran "victory" ads in several major newspapers on December 13, citing Intel's failure to respond to its challenge and a "significant lead" in overall performance-per-watt for its Opteron processors versus Intel's Xeon. Intel has likened AMD's challenge to a "fight in the schoolyard." Intel maintains a dominant position in the market and its heavyweight title remains in place when considering it continues to hold an 80% market share of the x86 processor market, according to research firm Mercury Research.

Like the political candidate with a significant led, it had little to gain by being drawn into a debate that would clearly be of greatest benefit to the challenger. In boxing, if a champion refuses to defend its title, the boxing commission can strip him of the title. In the world of microprocessors, the fight will undoubtedly continue for years to come.

"Our competition had decided not to show up so we're declaring victory," says Ben Williams, VP of AMD's commercial business. "They know we are a leader in the marketplace and they're afraid to show up. The market ought to notice that the one with the most market share is the loser in this race … They've got a lot to lose and they will continue to lose as we go into 2006."

AMD has edged its way to nearly 20% market share the old fashion way, it has earned it. AMD led the way in moving x86 processing in a shift from 32-bit to 64-bit operations, and it's April dual-core Opteron introduction beat Intel to the x86 dual-core server market by about six months. The more nimble AMD has on multiple occasions over the past two years forced Intel to make significant shifts in its long-term product plans and roadmaps.

In October AMD opened a new processor manufacturing plant in Dresden, Germany, that uses the largest silicon wafers currently in production in the industry. That plant will significantly increase the company's capability to produce greater volumes of processors for the market, enabling it to meet its targets of growing its market share to around 30% over the next two to three years. A few years ago a goal of 30% market share might seemed a pipe dream, but given its success of the past year, even greater success seems appears possible.

In sports athletes talk about hitting a "wall" where continuous improvement becomes difficult, if not impossible. With microprocessors, designers and manufacturers of the chips have hit that wall in regards to an ability to increase clock rates while maintaining levels of associated heat that would not make their use prohibitive. The next year or two will provide a clear demonstration of whether there is a wall ahead for AMD at 20% or 25% market share that it will be unable to climb. With resources at its disposal that dwarf that of AMD, Intel could conceivable reverse the technological treadmill that has had it playing catch-up for the past year, and allow it again dominate the market and erase AMD's market gains.

Whatever the eventual outcome of this battle, the most obvious winner is the consumers of microprocessors. Testimonials for businesses that are achieving new levels of performance while reducing cost, power, and the size of equipment in their datacenters arrives at InformationWeek on an almost daily basis.

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