• E-mail this page
• |  Print this page
• | 
• | 
• | 

Wi-Fi Hotspots Are Doomed

I bet you love your Wi-Fi. Well, don't get too attached. Ericsson's chief marketing officer believes that Wi-Fi is already irrelevant and will be replaced by high-speed wireless broadband sooner than we think. Roadblocks are definitely in the way, but 3.5G networks will far outstrip Wi-Fi in coverage the world over.

I am not going to fault Johan Bergendahl's comments. After all, Ericsson designs and manufactures a lot of the backhaul networking equipment being used by the mobile network operators to deploy 3G and 3.5G networks. From Ericsson's point of view, these mobile broadband networks are mushrooming in size much faster than fixed telephony did.

Bergendahl was the keynote speaker at the European Computer Audit, Control and Security Conference in Stockholm. He told attendees, "In Austria they are saying that mobile broadband will pass fixed broadband this year. It's already growing faster, and in Sweden, the most popular phone is a USB modem. Hotspots at places like Starbucks are becoming the telephone boxes of the broadband era. In a few years, it [HSPA] will be as common as Wi-Fi is today."

It's funny he uses the Starbucks example. I am writing this article while sitting in a Starbucks. To prove his point, I am not using Starbuck's Wi-Fi, but am using my own wireless broadband card to access the EV-DO Rev. A data network from Verizon Wireless. This is exactly Bergendahl's vision, though of course he'd prefer I was using Ericsson's technology and not Qualcomm's.

In my experience, my wireless data modem is far more reliable than Wi-Fi. Countless times, it has been able to give me a solid 3G connection to the Internet when Wi-Fi was barely working. This is vital for me, especially when I travel. Recent examples are when I was on-site in San Francisco last fall for CTIA, and Las Vegas for CES in January. At both trade shows, the Wi-Fi in my hotel rooms was spotty at best, and Verizon's 3G network worked each time without fail. Same goes for the press rooms at each trade show. In fact, finding working Wi-Fi at trade shows is amazingly difficult. The only place I ever use Wi-Fi is at home, where I always have a solid connection.

But I am probably an exception for the moment. First off, wireless broadband doesn't come cheap. For $60 per month, I get 5 GB of data transfer. That's out of reach for many. T-Mobile let's you subscribe to it's Wi-Fi hotspot services (which power wireless Internet at Starbucks for the time being) for half that amount or less. Because I use it for work, and I often need to connect to the Internet in places where hotspots aren't available, that justifies the expense to me. It probably doesn't to most consumers or even many professionals.

But time will change that. More and more laptops are being embedded with 3G modules. Sprint and Verizon Wireless already provide 3G coverage to most major markets in the U.S. AT&T covers fewer than Sprint and Verizon with its HSPDA networks, but is catching up rapidly. AT&T also has committed to rolling out HSPA in the years to come. Once it and T-Mobile blanket major markets with this 3.5G technology, they are going to want people to use it. Prices will come down to more palatable levels. Wi-Fi will suffer as a result, and eventually will be replaced.

One thing to keep is mind, though, is indoor coverage. Sitting in this Starbucks I have 4 out of 5 bars of coverage, which is pretty average in my experience so far. But getting a solid signal deep inside some buildings is tough. For wireless broadband to be a serious contender for the enterprise, indoor coverage will need to be improved. That means femto cells or pico cells. Given that these are relatively inexpensive solutions that guarantee indoor coverage, I see their use becoming more widespread.

So will wireless broadband. And don't forget about WiMax, which will provide similar WAN connectivity.

Wi-Fi is dead. Or will be in a few years.

« Will The SDK Be The iPhone's Achilles' Heel? | Main | 8 Gb FC, Qlogic, HP, And VM I/O »