Re: Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
I do not think facebook proved the uselessness of statistics. They merely abused statistics in their rejection of an appropriately executed study. Princeton does not claim that facebook will go out of business in three years. It may happen, though it is highly unlikely, that facebook will act to reverse the conditions that now plague its future. Princeton is making the case that should facebook fail to alter its course it will lose 800 million users in three years. The study judges the sea-worthiness of facebook as it exists today.
That will sound ridiculous only until we realize that there are many superior social media outlets already online, and that they are already taking market share from facebook, and that technology is shifting such that many other outlets will pile on in the very near future. When we also consider how simple it is to lose a user (a user may simply stop updating his or her profile, since they are using something else- no fuss no muss), the idea of losing 200 million users in a year becomes not so far-fetched.
I suspect in the last year facebook has seen at least 200 million newly dead accounts in its database. And facebook seems to be responding to the issue with gimmicks, thereby avoiding the fundamental problems that are responsible for its impending demise. Facebook, appears to have cut a deal with Huffpost, for example, in which the latter now forces new users to create facebook accounts. I scarcely think any of those accounts will remain active for long, if at all.