Oops, Blodget Does It Again, Prediciting Google At $2,000 A Share

Remember a couple years back when some analyst floated the idea that Google could eventually be worth $2,000 a share -- and was ridiculed from coast to coast? Well, first it's worth noting that Google is now almost a third of the way there. Second, it's worth noting that $2,000 a share would mean a market cap of about $750 billion, which -- given a reasonable time horizon -- just isn't that far-fetched.

Why? First, from a macro level, in every technology wave the market leader usually ends up amassing more power, wealth, and market capitalization than the leaders in the prior wave, often by a startling magnitude. The leaders in the last technology wave included Microsoft and Cisco, both of which peaked around $500 billion in market capitalization.

Even a room full of bears would no doubt agree that there will eventually be a company that has at least a $1 trillion market capitalization. So name one company that is better positioned than Google to one day have a $1 trillion market capitalization.

First, I'm not convinced that Google's other, nonsearch product offerings are as successful as the company's advocates (including Miller) would like us to believe. As I pointed out earlier today, Google dropped its paid video service. Google has been far from successful in China, where it has lost market share to Baidu, which is the dominant search engine in that market. No one can tell me how successful Google's mobile initiatives are to date, despite all the hype surrounding the Google Phone. Anyone remember Google Answers? I think you see my point.

Sure, Google has enjoyed a lot of success with some nonsearch services, like Gmail. I'm not going to argue that it hasn't. But, I'm trying to demonstrate that Google is vulnerable and that it is far from perfect. To date, Google's biggest successes remain its search engine and the massive ad machine that sits on top of it. Would anyone seriously argue that Google's business would survive if its search engine were to collapse tomorrow? I don't think so.