8 Doomsday Predictions From Yesterday And Today
We've long been frightened of the potential for technology to go wrong, and that doesn't seem likely to change.
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Doomsday predictions are lots of fun... unless they come true. One of the most recent has been about an Ebola epidemic in the US. While some people staunchly said Ebola was no threat to the US, it was a major campaign issue in the midterm elections and remains a concern for many people. Many were convinced that Ebola would be a seious challenge to our healthcare system and our safety. Just a few weeks later, America has been declared Ebola-free.
No doubt new cases will crop up. And sadly, the epidemic will continue in places with less developed healthcare systems. But because of hard work by medical professionals and the difficulty of actually passing Ebola, the October Ebola outbreaks did not become widespread.
The history of mankind's relationship with technology is chock full of bad predictions. Steve Ballmer famously predicted the iPhone would be a failure. Lots of people said humans would never fly. There was once something called a sound barrier for a reason. It is easy to predict the demise of a technology.
But what about the entire world? History has some famous moments where someone predicted that a failure in technology, or a technology itself, would destroy life on the planet as we know it. It takes some serious guts to make a prediction like that, especially since by definition every one of those predictions is still wrong.
In case you missed it, we're all still here. Yet, that doesn't keep people from making predictions. And we still hear frequent prognostications that technology will destroy life on Earth.
Will it? Maybe. You have to figure that, if we keep guessing, one of these times someone will be right. On the other hand, history tells us that we can deal with all that stuff that we believe is so dangerous -- either because the technology isn't as scary as we thought or we work hard to get around the threat when we discover it.
So, before we look at the three current biggest technological threats to our human existence, let's have a look at the past to see what was supposed to get us. Click the arrow below to start the slide show, and then tell us in the comments which technologies keep you up at night.
(Source: futureatlas.com)
Let's make no mistake. Ebola is a horrific tragedy, and in countries where there are not enough resources to fight it, it is truly an epidemic. There was debate about how deadly Ebola would be in a developed country. It turns out, at least by what happened in the US, you're 20 times more likely to be killed by a cow. Not from contaminated meat, but from an actual cow in mortal combat. One hundred times more people are going to die by being burned by their own tap water. I'm not trying to make light of any death, but can we all put Ebola in perspective before the next election?
(Source: CDC/Ethleen Lloyd)
Y2K is one of the most interesting predictions here, because we know it was a real problem back in 1999. And we know that some people reading this right now were part of a real and heroic effort to make the world Y2K compliant. Here's the question: Was IT the hero of the day, or was the problem overstated to begin with? I spent the coming of the new millennium at Disney World. I figured that a) they were mostly likely to solve the problem to begin with, and b) if there were major issues, people were far less likely to riot at Disney World. It turned out I had nothing to worry about, and Disney sparked the new millennium with fireworks, not fireballs from planes crashing from the sky, as some predicted.
(Source: John Swindells)
There is a persistent myth that scientists made bets during atomic testing as to whether the world would end in a terrible chain reaction when the first nuclear bomb exploded. In actuality, the bet was on the size of the explosion. However, we know that some of the greatest minds in science at the time, including Fermi and Oppenheimer, were very cognizant that they needed to have the math right. Again, we're still here, though the power of the bomb is horrific enough as it is.
(Source: National Nuclear Security Administration)
In 1995, columnist and famed engineer Robert Metcalfe said that the Internet would collapse in 1996. Not just go down for a few minutes, but have a supernova-level collapse he called a gigalapse. Granted, even if the Internet had collapsed, it wouldn't have been an order of tragedy on the level of a global pandemic. But certainly, we all know how even in 1996 an Internet collapse would have been a big deal. Metcalfe was so sure, he said he'd eat his column if he was wrong. The Internet is still here. Metcalfe knows paper goes best with a bit of sugar. He's probably happy he wasn't in the paperless 21st century when he said it.
(Source: Marcelo Graciolli)
When the Large Hadron Collider opened at CERN in 2011, one of the fears was that the explosion it created would be so powerful it would create a black hole. Yes, a black hole which would then open up and swallow the entire Earth and eventually much of our galaxy. Needless to say, we're still here, and CERN is still here. But this particular prediction won't go away. When scientists proposed upgrading another collider, the RHIC, to be stronger than the CERN collider, "experts" immediately brought back the threat of a potential black hole. I suppose it is possible they'll eventually be right if we keep making more powerful colliders.
(Source: NASA/JPL-Caltech)
Nanobots (tiny robots) are about to make a major breakthrough in medical care. For instance, researchers at the University of Michigan are developing microscopic robots that can work together to mimic a human muscle. Other nanobots are being invented for surgery, medicine delivery, and countless other activities. These little robots are potential miracles. Many people also predict they will mean our doom. How can little robots end humanity? In a flood of grey goo. The idea is that the robots, either because we program them or because they learn, will replicate themselves. When they do, they'll start taking resources from the environment around them, and hundreds or thousands of microscopic robots will become millions, and then billions, and then so many that all those tiny robots start to look like a thick metal goo. And we will drown in goo of our own creation. Could it happen? Well for one, we'll probably not program the robots to self-replicate. For another, if we saw they could, chances are we'd do something to eliminate them, just as we would a virus or bacteria. But given that we're letting these tiny robots invade our bodies, it is possible we won't have any choice in the matter.
(Source: Antony-22)
We've been dabbling in genetic engineering for a few decades (longer if you count traditional breeding and growing techniques). We're doing it to our food with GMOs. We're also bracing to do it to ourselves with personalized medicine. What could possibly go wrong? Well, we could kill all the bees by genetically modifying plants. In turning off a gene that causes a disease we could accidentally turn on a gene that causes something worse. Given the billions of combinations of DNA, and how little we know about their interconnectedness, we might be premature on using genetic modification. On the other hand, we don't do this stuff just for fun. We experiment. Much like the chain reaction people feared during the atomic bomb research, we were careful. It's up to you to decide how careful we're being with our genetic engineering.
(Source: Daniel Goehring)
We know climate change is a real problem. And heck, it might be climate change that actually kills us. But it might not be the way you think: We might kill ourselves trying to reverse climate change. Given the slow response from governments and businesses to curtail greenhouse gasses, many people are seeking technological solutions, including capturing and trapping large amounts of carbon or absorbing solar radiation to avoid polar cap melting. People have considered interventions like putting large blankets over glaciers. These might just save our bacon. But what if we get the numbers wrong? What if we keep too much carbon trapped and accidentally cause an Ice Age? Changing solar radiation patterns could cause major droughts or other changes in weather. The solution could be as bad as the problem. Then again, if we don't do anything, we risk the known threats of climate change.
(Source: David Baird)
The idea that new technology will lead to our demise is obviously not going anywhere, but so far, we've been able to avoid all of the doomsday predictions coming true. What do you think: Can we keep dodging bullets? Are we smart enough to avoid the pitfalls? Or are we about to kill ourselves with technology? What do you think is the biggest threat to humanity right now? Answer in the comments below.
(Source: Marcus Ranum)
The idea that new technology will lead to our demise is obviously not going anywhere, but so far, we've been able to avoid all of the doomsday predictions coming true. What do you think: Can we keep dodging bullets? Are we smart enough to avoid the pitfalls? Or are we about to kill ourselves with technology? What do you think is the biggest threat to humanity right now? Answer in the comments below.
(Source: Marcus Ranum)
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