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Android To Outsell iPhone By 2012: Analyst
New research published by Informa suggests that the Android platform will surpass the iPhone in unit sales by the year 2012. Do you think that's accurate? Will it really take three years, or do you think it might happen sooner?
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New research published by Informa suggests that the Android platform will surpass the iPhone in unit sales by the year 2012. Do you think that's accurate? Will it really take three years, or do you think it might happen sooner?We know that Apple has sold more than 10 million iPhones at a minimum. HTC hasn't released sales figures for the HTC G1, the first -- and only -- Android phone available. It is widely believed that about 1 million G1's have been sold, but that hasn't been confirmed by HTC. It's safe to say, however, that Apple has probably trumped the G1 so far in terms of unit sales. Informa's analysts believe it will take three years for Android to catch up to and pass the iPhone.
The reasons stated by Informa are:
Changing software platform strategies -- i.e., it's all about the openness. That being said, it's not a coincidence that Nokia pushed Symbian toward open source.
Developers, developers, developers -- as Steve Ballmer has put it. Developing for Symbian is still way too complicated for many companies. On the other hand, Google offers interested companies set of standardized tools.
Perhaps Informa should take a look at the recent war of words between Android and Symbian. Both sides of the "open" debate took shots at one another. While Android does offer standardized tools, the Symbian Foundation offers a wide range of tools and SDKs for developers to use to create and write applications for the Symbian platform. These tools will consolidate over the coming months as the Symbian Foundation works to merge the different versions of Symbian that are currently used by handset makers into one version.
Aside from that, I don't think it should surprise anyone that Android could eventually out-sell the iPhone. The iPhone is but one device with one OS. Sure, there is only one Android phone available at the moment, but HTC will be releasing another in mere months. Other companies, such as Samsung, LG, Motorola, and Huawei all have said that they will release Android-based phones (many by the end of 2009). With that many handset makers backing it up, Android is sure to begin making a serious dent in the market share of other mobile operating platforms, including the iPhone.
The iPhone has a pretty good head start, though. HTC and the other manufacturers need to get the ball rolling a little bit faster and get those Android handsets in the market sooner rather than later if they wish to catch Apple.
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