Google's 10 Big Bets On The Future
From Project Ara smartphones to solar-powered drones, these Google projects try to turn science fiction into reality. Look what's coming.
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At the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, Calif., on Tuesday, the future attracted more attention than the past. Google held its first Project Ara developers' conference, and those in attendance got a glimpse of tomorrow's smartphones.
"Tomorrow" in this instance means January 2015. That's when the first Project Ara phone is expected to ship, priced at a mere $50. But you'll want to buy additional hardware modules.
Project Ara reimagines the smartphone as a collection of modules, each with its own function, that can be combined to suit the user's needs. Google intends to allow anyone to design these modules and order them from a manufacturer that will make them on demand. It's a hugely ambitious undertaking that has the potential to usher in the era of mass electronics customization and to reinvent the mobile industry. It could also be a flop. But that's a risk Google is willing to take.
Google is not alone in pursuing disruptive innovation, but it is uniquely positioned and motivated to shake things up. Its direct competitors in the computing market, Apple and Microsoft, tend to innovate within parameters that benefit their existing hardware and software businesses. Each has taken a page from Google's playbook in moving into cloud computing and advertising.
Google made its name in the advertising business, but it recognized early on that advertising is merely a form of information, and hardware and software direct the flow of information. With few challengers in online advertising, it can afford to challenge others in different fields. Amazon is following a similar path, though it is hampered by its reliance on retail sales, which incur more costs at scale than selling digital bits.
Because every business depends on information, Google has the opportunity to participate in just about any industry it chooses. And it is doing so with an eye toward rocking the boat rather than protecting established business models. One area where Google's innovation lags is in the advertising industry. Google is not eager to kill its golden goose; leave that to companies aiming to displace Google.
But beyond the world of advertising, Google is shooting for the moon. It has considered projects that many consider foolish -- a space elevator and a hoverboard, for example -- and has actually undertaken quite a few similarly ambitious research efforts.
Google dubs its approach "Moonshot" thinking, in a reference to NASA's Apollo program, which took US astronauts to the moon. That's a bit of an exaggeration in terms of funding -- the cost of the Apollo program would be well over $100 billion today -- but it's fair enough in terms of ambition. Google is aiming high.
Science fiction writer William Gibson once wrote, "The the future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed." Google is distributing the future. Take a look at what's coming.
Like Project Ara, Project Tango seeks to reinvent the smartphone. But Project Tango aspires to change the way smartphones see. It adds 3D sensors to Android phones to allow the devices to create 3D maps of their environment in real time, opening up a variety of compelling potential applications.
Sending wireless routers into the air on balloons sounds a bit crazy. But that's the idea behind Google's Project Loon, which aspires to bring Internet access to remote regions that don't have reliable Internet service.
Google recently agreed to acquire Titan Aerospace, which makes solar-powered drones that can stay airborne for prolonged periods. It plans to explore using these drones for gathering aerial data for maps and industrial purposes, and as platforms for wireless Internet service. Google Maps Drone View may not be far off.
Google Glass is an attempt to create a mainstream market for wearable computing. There have been computerized watches and fitness accessories for years, but Glass is the first consumer-oriented device to package the functionality of a smartphone in a face-mounted form. As such, Glass presents a social challenge as much as a technical one. Whether it succeeds or fails, it will have a profound impact on the shape of technology to come.
Add tiny circuits to a contact lens, and you might be able to measure glucose levels in tears. Google is working on just such a contact lens to help with the management of diabetes. And that's just the beginning of the technology's potential medical applications.
While the notion of a self-driving car may seem far-fetched, Google and other companies have already demonstrated the technology. Nissan said it plans to be ready to sell a driverless car by 2020. Google and the automakers experimenting with similar systems now need to create the political, legal, and social conditions that will allow self-driving cars on public roads.
Last December, Google bought eight companies involved in the development of robots. That's not an exploratory investment; it's a major commitment, one that appears to dovetail nicely with the autonomous navigation systems developed for Google's driverless cars. One of the companies, Boston Dynamics, makes robots for military applications. Respect the terms of service -- or else.
Makani Power, acquired by Google last year, is developing a way to harness wind energy using a tethered, turbine-carrying glider. Think of it as a flying windmill.
Google may be an exemplary innovator, but it's hardly the only organization doing interesting research. To the company's credit, it has organized the Solve For X conference to bring experts together to discuss new ideas and technology. Solve For X hopes to create radical solutions for global problems with breakthrough technology. That sounds better than accepting the status quo.
Google may be an exemplary innovator, but it's hardly the only organization doing interesting research. To the company's credit, it has organized the Solve For X conference to bring experts together to discuss new ideas and technology. Solve For X hopes to create radical solutions for global problems with breakthrough technology. That sounds better than accepting the status quo.
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