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How Did Our 2009 Predictions Fare?

This week CMS Watch issued its twelve predictions for 2010. In this post, I look back at our 2009 predictions to see how we did. The 2009 predictions were...

Tony Byrne

December 18, 2009

2 Min Read

This week CMS Watch issued its twelve predictions for 2010. In this post, I look back at our 2009 predictions to see how we did. The 2009 predictions were:

1. Open source ECM players get an initial boost. Yes, the recession gave them a boost, though smart customers are still asking tough questions about multi-year total cost of ownership.

2. Office 14 casts long shadow on SharePoint. Yes, and no. SharePoint 2010 has energized Redmond's consulting channel. The new version is mostly casting a long shadow on 3rd-party SharePoint add-ons and some enterprise procurement teams looking to delay strategic decisions.3. "Taxonomies are dead. Long live metadata!" Definitely less interest in complicated, human-maintained hierarchies.

4. Regulatory-compliance concerns reignited. Yes, though somewhat sector-specific.

5. Renewed interest in pro-active e-discovery. Not sure there was a major wave here in 2009. What do you think?

6. SaaS vendors expand offerings. Yes, though perhaps not as much as we predicted. Salesforce has certainly been active.

7. Oracle falls behind in battle for knowledge workers. Yes, but that was an easy one.

8. New emphasis on application search. I think so, but then again, we predict it again this year, albeit with some new twists.

9. Social computing diffuses into the Enterprise. Definitely.

10. Long-awaited consolidation comes to the WCM space. No way. What was I thinking?!?

11. Mobile and multimedia Web analytics become key requirements...and disrupters. Multimedia for sure, mobile only half way.

12. Buyers remain in driver's seat. Yes. This is another easy one. Just remember that vendors don't chase every lead in this economy, either.

So, I give us a cumulative score of 9 out of 12, or pretty much the same average as last year. Maybe .75 is a good co-efficient to apply to our 2010 predictions.This week CMS Watch issued its twelve predictions for 2010. In this post, I look back at our 2009 predictions to see how we did. The 2009 predictions were...

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About the Author(s)

Tony Byrne

Contributor

Tony Byrne is the president of research firm Real Story Group and a 20-year technology industry veteran. In 2001, Tony founded CMS Watch as a vendor-independent analyst firm that evaluates content technologies and publishes research comparing different solutions. Over time, CMS Watch evolved into a multichannel research and advisory organization, spinning off similar product evaluation research in areas such as enterprise collaboration and social software. In 2010, CMS Watch became the Real Story Group, which focuses primarily on research on enterprise collaboration software, SharePoint, and Web content management.

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