IBM Predicts Next 5 Life-Changing Tech Innovations
IBM unveils its annual "5 in 5" list of technology breakthroughs that promise to change how we work and live within five years. Real promise or PR fantasy?
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IBM issued its eighth annual "IBM 5 in 5" list Tuesday, Dec. 17, once again noting five potentially life-changing innovations that will make their mark within five years. The theme behind this year's list is cognitive computing, whereby learning machines will help us do a better job of teaching, selling, treating patients, protecting security, and making cities more livable.
Cognitive computing has been a big push for IBM in 2013. That's the technology behind Watson, the reigning non-human "Jeopardy" champion that IBM is trying to quickly evolve from an interesting technology demo into the practical, commercially successful brain behind real-world applications.
In one of her first major public events as IBM's CEO, Ginny Rometty declared early this year that we're entering a third wave of computing. In the first wave, computers were used to count. In the second wave, computers became programmable so they could execute instructions.
"The third era will be about computers that learn," she said. "It has to be because information is too big and growing too fast, so you can't program it. The computer has to learn, by itself."
Taking advantage of machines that are "aware," IBM says we can look forward to classrooms that learn about students and then personalize coursework and support accordingly. Local, brick-and-mortar stores have been getting clobbered by online retailers, but IBM predicts that over the next five years augmented reality, wearable computing, and location intelligence will bring local retailers back into the game.
On the healthcare front -- an industry where Watson is already being put to work -- IBM predicts that cancers will be routinely treated at the DNA level within five years. With these personalized treatments, based on the DNA of the patient and their tumors, we'll see more effective treatments and fewer unnecessary side effects. This is already happening, but within five years costs will decrease dramatically and a now-rarified treatment will become commonplace, says IBM.
There were 12.6 million victims of identity fraud last year in the US alone, but IBM predicts that within five years we'll all have our own "digital guardians" that will watch over our digital lives, using cloud-based analytics to learn the difference between our normal activity and potentially dangerous online activity.
In a final prediction, IBM says that within five years cities will become more adaptive thanks to cloud-based social feedback, crowdsourcing, and predictive analytics. Systems will connect to billions of sensors to sense and respond to traffic and transit patterns and human preferences and demand, enabling city managers and leaders to respond quickly to constituent needs and dynamically reallocate resources.
Are we on our way to responsive schools, retail stores, healthcare, digital devices, and governments? Read more about IBM's predictions and evidence and add your comments on what's realistic and what's a pipe dream.
Doug Henschen is executive editor of InformationWeek, where he covers the intersection of enterprise applications with information management, business intelligence, big data and analytics. He previously served as editor-in-chief of Intelligent Enterprise, editor-in-chief of Transform Magazine, and executive editor at DM News.
If children can't learn the way we teach, why don't we teach the way they learn? This question captures IBM's vision for learning classrooms that track the progress of each student and then personalize coursework accordingly. Teachers naturally adapt to the needs of each student, but IBM says cloud-based systems will "go much further" by automatically creating customized lesson plans and tailoring coursework for specific careers. This will enable schools to "reach more students in more meaningful ways," says IBM. With students leaning at their own pace, we'll move beyond the tyranny of grades.
IBM scientists are putting these theories to the test in a research project with Gwinnett County Public Schools in Georgia, and it says big data analytics will predict performance and learning needs and then align learning content and techniques with specific students. Sounds good in theory, but we've also recently seen great expectations for massive open online courses (MOOCs) that haven't been met. So is IBM onto something, or is this one of those predictions that's too good to be true?
Local retailers will fight back and become "better than e-tailers can ever hope to be," according to IBM, by merging the tactility and immediacy of physical retail with advances in augmented reality, wearable computing, and location intelligence. Given the sales trends of recent years, that's a pretty bold claim. But IBM says these digital tools will give customers a richer in-store experience, giving retailers an opportunity to create more immersive and personalized shopping experiences.
IBM Research is already working on augmented reality shopping experiences, but can technology overcome the reality of poorly merchandized stores staffed by poorly trained clerks? Chime in with your perspective.
No doubt you've read about individualized medicine. In the case of cancer, for example, cutting-edge healthcare organizations are personalizing treatments based on the DNA of the patient and his or her tumors. Today this approach to cancer treatment is all too rare, and even then it's time- and cost-prohibitive. IBM's bet is that within five years, DNA sequencing will take less than a day, and cloud-based systems will crunch reams of medical information to help doctors come up with individualized treatment plans.
This is one of the applications that IBM has already announced for its Watson technology. Working with partners including Memorial Sloan-Kettering, IBM already seems well on its way to delivering on this front. But medical professionals please chime in: Will this happen and will we need computers as sophisticated as Watson as digital advisers to doctors?
It knows when you are surfing. It knows that you're up late. It knows when you're logged into your real bank account, and it knows when it's a fake.
This isn't some privacy-invading Santa Claus; it's IBM's vision for digital guardians that know your digital life inside and out, and it's not just talking about computer and smartphone interactions. Guardians will know your car, your house, and all your connected devices. And instead of relying on fixed rules and passwords, they'll analyze contextual, situational, and historical data to verify your identity and your actions on different devices.
IBM says it's already applying machine learning to mobile devices on networks to assess potential risks. The company predicts we will see "more agile and contextual [security] with a 360-degree view of data, devices, and applications, ready to spot deviations that could be precursors to an attack and a stolen identity."
Security experts: do you see this happening within five years?
Within five years, city leaders will tap social feedback from citizens to know when and where resources are needed so the city can dynamically adapt. IBM says it has researchers working in Brazil to develop a crowdsourcing tool that allows citizens to report accessibility problems via mobile phones. That's a step toward helping people with disabilities better navigate urban streets, and with the World Cup and Summer Olympics headed to Brazil, it's a step in the right direction. You can also look forward to Internet of Things-type deployments where sensors track movement of traffic and people in transit systems, triggering traffic signals, adjustments in train schedules, and similar things to adapt and optimize.
We've already reported on Boston's pothole app and Louisville, Kentucky's, smartphone-mapped asthma-tracking app, so the use of sensors and citizen engagement is already a reality. The questions are: How routinely will the technology be deployed and will politicians truly embrace technology for the good of the people?
Within five years, city leaders will tap social feedback from citizens to know when and where resources are needed so the city can dynamically adapt. IBM says it has researchers working in Brazil to develop a crowdsourcing tool that allows citizens to report accessibility problems via mobile phones. That's a step toward helping people with disabilities better navigate urban streets, and with the World Cup and Summer Olympics headed to Brazil, it's a step in the right direction. You can also look forward to Internet of Things-type deployments where sensors track movement of traffic and people in transit systems, triggering traffic signals, adjustments in train schedules, and similar things to adapt and optimize.
We've already reported on Boston's pothole app and Louisville, Kentucky's, smartphone-mapped asthma-tracking app, so the use of sensors and citizen engagement is already a reality. The questions are: How routinely will the technology be deployed and will politicians truly embrace technology for the good of the people?
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