Hot Tech Trends To Watch In 2016
Whether it's the smartphone, virtual reality, or the growing ranks of the Internet of Things, technology will continue to pervade every aspect of our daily lives as 2016 unfolds. Here's what will play central roles in defining the next 12 months.
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As 2015 fades into memory and 2016 dawns, a new chapter of the tech narrative is about to begin. What will dominate the landscape as 2016 marches forward? Can wearables break through to become mainstream products? Will tablets whither on the vine? Are smart homes primed to take off? Do desktop computers matter anymore?
Tech titans have already set the tone for 2016.
New technology will begin to rise as existing products and categories mature and plateau. The story moving through 2016 won't focus so much on the individual pieces; rather, the important theme will concern the role each piece plays in the larger picture. Devices will need to be able to stand on their own, but success will depend on the ability to connect to and share with others.
Wearables are a great example.
A year ago, the bulk of wearables depended on nearby smartphones for information. Now, the first wave of cellular -- and truly independent -- wearables is hitting the market. This independence expands their scale, but wearables must continue to integrate with all the aspects of our digital lives. The same is true for the Internet of Things and smart homes.
Whether it's through a smartphone or smartwatch, mobile payments should expand in scope as retailers and banks begin to see their value. With more options than ever, consumers will be able to pay for more goods and services from their mobile devices, though we may still need to have our wallets as backup. Fingerprints and other biometrics will reach mainstream use to secure our digital transactions.
[Check out InformationWeek's list of the top mobile tech of 2015.]
The hardware we use will become less important. While smartphones, tablets, laptops, and wearables all have a part to play, their ability to interact with various platforms will trounce the benefits of the hardware itself. Apple, Google, Microsoft, and many others are working to push their own vision of a connected life and will continue to jockey for position.
Artificial intelligence is primed for a new player. Watson, Siri, Google Now, Cortana, and Alexa helped set the stage. Facebook, however, is prepping its own artificial intelligence and is promising to add a social component to what our digital assistants can do.
The next 12 months will be exciting to watch unfold. With that in mind, here are 10 tech predictions to follow.
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The Apple Watch took a commanding lead of the wearable space in 2015, but it wasn't the only player. Android Wear matured in new and exciting ways. It added the ability to support LTE for calling and data services. Pebble, Samsung, LG, and others helped expand the landscape by pitching their own platforms, but were marginalized by the lack of app compatibility.
Smartwatch shipments will push to 34.3 million during 2016, says IDC, as the popularity of fitness bands starts to fade. Even so, smartwatch makers will need to do more to convince consumers they are worth the $300 to $400 price tags by expanding the feature set beyond the role of smart notification manager. Mobile payments and smart home integration come to mind as having the most potential.
Samsung and Google threw their hats into the mobile payment space in 2015 with Samsung Pay and Android Pay, respectively. Both compete with the iPhone's Apple Pay. All three services have done a commendable job winning over the support of financial institutions, but now have to focus on retailers. Apple Pay and Android Pay are each available at a bit more than 1 million retail locations nationwide at the close of 2015. That's not nearly enough. Samsung Pay is more widely available thanks to its use of NFC and MST (magnetic stripe) technology for making purchases.
Others are primed to compete. Walmart recently launched its own app-based mobile purchasing tool and other retailers, such as Target, are weighing similar approaches. As availability proliferates, consumer adoption of mobile payment solutions will rise.
Fingerprint readers and other biometric security tools are nothing new. Apple added a fingerprint sensor to the iPhone 5s in 2013, but HP was putting them on PDAs and laptops back in the early aughts. The old-style swiping readers were slow and buggy. The latest generation of fingerprint tech finally gets performance where it needs to be.
Handsets such as the iPhone 6s, Galaxy S6, Nexus 6P, and One A9 have incredibly quick fingerprint readers that are faster -- and much more secure -- than traditional PINs and passwords. Now that the technology delivers the ease-of-use required by mobile device owners, they'll begin to adopt biometrics in greater numbers. Expect to see biometrics appear in more mobile gear as we move through 2016.
The Internet of Things has a problem: There are too many platforms. It seems every component maker wants its own tech to play a central role in controlling everything. That's why we have HomeKit from Apple, Brillo from Google, Windows 10 IoT from Microsoft, and similar entrants from Qualcomm, Intel, Philips, and others.
Consumers don't want to have to worry about whether or not the lightbulb they bought is going to work with their smartphone, or if their garage door is going to open to commands sent via WiFi. IoT vendors need to create a better story in order to drum up interest in the smart home. Either platforms need to consolidate so there are fewer choices, or open up so they all work together. Until they do, the smart home may be a thing left to the geeks.
Tablets are no longer a growing device segment. Tablet sales data from Statista through the end of September shows year-over-year drops for each quarter. The biggest sales period for tablets came in the fourth quarter of 2013, when shoppers picked up 78.6 million slates. That figure dropped to 76.1 million during the same quarter of 2014, and is expected to be even lower during the fourth quarter of 2015.
Apple hoped to reinvigorate sales of its tablet line with the iPad Pro this year, but the jury's out on whether or not the big-screened tablet is winning people over. The Microsoft Surface Pro 4, meanwhile, has been lauded as a solid work machine. Tablet technology hasn't advanced at a rapid pace over the last 18 months. Slate makers need to deliver new and compelling hardware and software alike in order to regain momentum.
Smartphones, much like their larger tablet counterparts, haven't changed much over the last year. Today's leading devices nearly all deliver great performance thanks to eye-popping screens, rich photos, and swift app behavior. More than ever, they have become the central hub to our digital lives thanks to their always-connected status.
As we move through 2016, the underlying platform will continue to define how we use smartphones more so than the hardware. Apple and Google -- which together control more than 95% of the smartphone market -- have done a good job with their most recent OS releases to bridge the gaps between phone, wearable, home, and our cars. Expect to see more fully-formed spans connecting the various puzzle pieces, with smartphones managing it all from our pockets.
Get ready to rumble (but be sure not to mumble)! Mobile devices of all shapes and sizes have access to artificial intelligence in one form or another these days. iPhone owners have Siri, Android owners have Google Now, and Windows Mobile users have Cortana. Amazon's Alexa stays at home, but does many of the same things its voice-activated mobile competitors do.
All four will have to contend with Facebook M, the forthcoming AI that the social networking giant has been testing the last few months. The company hopes to differentiate M from other assistants by allowing it to compete tasks. For example, M will be able to buy gifts online, or book travel arrangements. M is built into Facebook's Messenger app. The company hasn't said when trials will expand, but expect 2016 to be a big year in the voice-activated, AI-assisted digital helper space.
The VR battle lines have already been drawn and 2016 will define the first round of winners and losers. Google has a huge jump on the competition in the cheap VR space with Google Cardboard, but Samsung is now shipping its smartphone-based Gear VR headset. HTC has promised big news surrounding its Vive platform come CES, and Microsoft still has ground to cover with Hololens.
Whether consumed through an inexpensive mobile viewer or a connected headset, the VR space is set to reach consumers in new ways through 2016.
Desktops served as the dominant computing platform for decades, but that's changing rapidly. Mobility is often prioritized over power and performance these days, and that largely relegates desktops to the growing list of outdated gear in which neither consumers nor enterprise-buyers are interested.
Smartphones and tablets can do much of the work that was accomplished previously with ponderously large computers. Even laptops have suffered a bit in the wake of phone and tablet disruption. The desktop's days are numbered, and 2016 will see their numbers dwindle further.
The push to make things faster has brought incredible change over the last decade. LTE 4G is enjoying its fifth birthday in the US, as Verizon marks the 2010 launch of its LTE network this month. Telecommunications companies and standards bodies are still working to define 5G, but that's not enough to stop the industry from making improvements to existing infrastructure. The next year will see network operators continue to roll out Carrier Aggregation and other LTE-Advanced technology across their LTE offerings. These adjustments boost capacity and speed.
At the same time, carriers continue to compete for spectrum. The 600 MHz incentive auction kicks off mid-2016 and will see network operators spending billions for low-band airwaves. Our phones, tablets, and other connected devices will be able connect in more places and do so at more and more rapid speeds.
The push to make things faster has brought incredible change over the last decade. LTE 4G is enjoying its fifth birthday in the US, as Verizon marks the 2010 launch of its LTE network this month. Telecommunications companies and standards bodies are still working to define 5G, but that's not enough to stop the industry from making improvements to existing infrastructure. The next year will see network operators continue to roll out Carrier Aggregation and other LTE-Advanced technology across their LTE offerings. These adjustments boost capacity and speed.
At the same time, carriers continue to compete for spectrum. The 600 MHz incentive auction kicks off mid-2016 and will see network operators spending billions for low-band airwaves. Our phones, tablets, and other connected devices will be able connect in more places and do so at more and more rapid speeds.
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