Gartner's 10 Tech Predictions That Will Change IT
During its recent Symposium ITXpo, Gartner released predictions about the future of technology for IT departments and users. Here's a look at those predictions and what they might mean for you and your organization.
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One of the reasons people go to the annual Gartner Symposium ITxpo is to hear Gartner analysts offer predictions for the future. This year was no different, and Gartner didn't disappoint, offering predictions and prognostications on a variety of subjects.
One of the most talked about lists of predictions every year is the Top Tech Predictions for IT Organizations and Users. Let's talk about this year's version.
Gartner offered 10 predictions for the next five to six years. These aren't pointed, tactical predictions about how big monitor screens will become or whether the delete key will move from the right side of the keyboard to the left. These are big picture predictions that offer a look into the possibilities of huge trends that will move markets, industries, and society.
Are there any interesting trends within the trends? Three stand out:
First, three of the trends deal with the user experience -- how users will interact with the systems IT presents to them going forward.
Two of the trends are about the Internet of Things -- and neither of them explicitly mention security.
Finally, none of the trends are primarily about either artificial intelligence or machine learning, though those were two topics on the lips of may attendees and analysts at the conference this year.
It's likely that AI is not mentioned specifically because it, like mobile devices, is becoming part of the way that computing is done. There wasn't a clear consensus that these intelligent machines will replace humans in different jobs (though some displacement is likely), but most agreed that computers will use artificial intelligence to aid and assist humans in many new ways in the coming years.
[See Top Programming Languages That Will Future-Proof Your Portfolio.]
Now, the great thing about long-range predictions is that a lot of people will have forgotten that you made them in five (or six, maybe seven) years' time. For IT professionals, though, the great thing about these predictions is that they provide valuable data points when making long-term strategic plans.
It doesn't make much sense to toss out your current plans if they're not in perfect alignment with these predictions, but they do give some additional information that you can use in figuring out how to tactically enact your strategic vision.
What I'm interested in, though, is how these predictions align with your take on the future of technology. Do you see anything here that strikes you as complete nonsense?
How about something that strikes you as being practically prescient? Let us know what you think -- and how you think IT should be planning a response to the trends for the future.
Augmented reality has entered the mainstream through games. That point of entry will expand to many nongame applications. We've heard about augmented reality for industrial and training applications, but the big numbers will likely come through shopping assistance offered through augmented reality. Augmented reality doesn't require cardboard visors or dorky-looking glasses -- all it really takes is a smartphone and the right application. Those applications? They're where the IT department comes in.
In Star Trek, interactions with the computer happened most often via sound interface. The rise of voice assistants like Siri, Cortana, and Alexa means that more people will become used to human-voice interaction with computers. It's a short leap from that to websites that don't show, but speak information to the user. If you're in web development, this is going to mean learning a whole new set of media operations and an entirely new way of working with content developers.
The argument between those who think that apps are the way to go on mobile and those who prefer responsive web design as the way to bring services to users isn't going way. What is going to change, though, is the percentage of companies that decide not to continue to invest in dedicated native apps. The reason is simple: Native apps are more expensive to build and there are some real questions about whether the investment is worthwhile. As more companies decide to reduce their investment, responsive web design will continue to grow.
This prediction is a bit of a misdirection because in this context, when Gartner says "algorithms," it really means "artificial intelligence." It's interesting that AI has become a term that's sufficiently emotionally charged that the firm feels it's safer to go with a synonym. In that context, then what we have here is an acknowledgment that AI in its role of augmenting human capabilities will be a major factor in the global workplace in less than five years.
One of the changes that has come with the digitalization of business is a tremendous rise in the sheer number of transactions between companies and customers. Blockchain is in early days, but it shows incredible promise in reducing the friction of each transaction and increasing the trust that exists between parties. Since blockchain is still developing as a technology, it's impossible to say precisely how it will be used. What seems almost certain, though, is that it will be used by a lot of different companies, at least some of which will grow to become next-generation commercial giants.
According to Gartner, current top seven digital giants by revenue and market capitalization are Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent.
Here's the truly radical part of this prediction: Note that Gartner didn't say 20% of all online activities will involve one of the giants. It's 20% of all activities. That is an amazing amount of participation in an individual's life by one of these giants. For IT pros, it means that, in many situations, learning how to work with those digital giant APIs will become key career knowledge.
This is where Gartner brings its bimodal IT concept into focus. The firm is saying that for every dollar you spend on innovative mode 1, IT will need seven in more traditional mode 2 investment to bring to the project to life. Part of this isn't surprising. We all know that it can take a lot more money to make an idea operational than it does to come up with the idea in the first place. Gartner isn't saying that you shouldn't invest in innovation. It's just reminding everyone that the investment in innovation doesn't stop with a working product or system. Don't forget the deployment and operational costs.
For many IT pros, this might be the happiest, most positive prediction on the whole list. We've been hearing for years that the IoT would result in untold petabytes of new data flooding into enterprise IT. Many executives wondered whether the supposed advantages of IoT would be worth the very real investment in storage required to deal with data from sensors and instruments. Gartner is saying that the IoT won't require mortgaging the future to take advantage of IoT. We've already built the infrastructure that will support the vast majority of the data that new sensors will send to the data center.
When it comes to industrial IoT, predictive maintenance is the killer app. Every time a machine or system breaks down unexpectedly, costs skyrocket. Gartner is predicting that the certainty brought to maintenance and upkeep by the IoT will result in massive savings for both businesses and individuals. In some cases, these are going to be hard savings to quantify soon, but they will be savings that drop almost directly to the bottom line. The impact that IT has on the overall organization will be huge when the IoT is taken into account.
The same dynamic that lets the IoT save companies money on maintenance costs will be at work in human health costs. It's already been shown that quantization -- through monitoring our daily activity -- has a positive impact on the amount of daily activity we each get.
The danger comes in privacy costs. Will businesses be willing to subsidize fitness trackers without having access to the data generated by those trackers?
If the business does get access to fitness data, will it treat that data with the proper respect for employee privacy and security? This is a big question that goes beyond IT, but IT is going to be deeply involved with employee fitness data in the next five years.
Those are the 10 key predictions from Gartner Symposium regarding technology for IT departments and users. What are your predictions? Do you accept all of these or do you have your own list? Let us know -- and let's see what the future brings.
The same dynamic that lets the IoT save companies money on maintenance costs will be at work in human health costs. It's already been shown that quantization -- through monitoring our daily activity -- has a positive impact on the amount of daily activity we each get.
The danger comes in privacy costs. Will businesses be willing to subsidize fitness trackers without having access to the data generated by those trackers?
If the business does get access to fitness data, will it treat that data with the proper respect for employee privacy and security? This is a big question that goes beyond IT, but IT is going to be deeply involved with employee fitness data in the next five years.
Those are the 10 key predictions from Gartner Symposium regarding technology for IT departments and users. What are your predictions? Do you accept all of these or do you have your own list? Let us know -- and let's see what the future brings.
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