Facebook Predicts Princeton Won't Exist In 2021 - InformationWeek

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1/24/2014
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Facebook Predicts Princeton Won't Exist In 2021

Facebook addressed Princeton's prediction of the social network's sudden demise with its own amusing findings using the same methodology.
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ANON1249910196962
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ANON1249910196962,
User Rank: Strategist
1/26/2014 | 11:15:27 AM
Re: Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
Well beyond the lies, dammed lies and statistics concept, I am more inclined to belived Facebook will meet an alien space probe and merger with it to become a higher life form.
Shane M. O'Neill
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Shane M. O'Neill,
User Rank: Author
1/24/2014 | 6:52:07 PM
Re: Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
This is funny. Good for Facebook. I had no idea they had a sense of humor. 

So the Airpocalypse hits in 2060 huh. Thankfully I'll be long-dead by then.
aweyrother
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aweyrother,
User Rank: Apprentice
1/24/2014 | 5:21:03 PM
Re: Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
>Maybe if Facebook figures out how to charge each of its users $40,170 per year, plus $13,080 for a room and meals, it will be able to match Princeton's longevity.

Though funny, your statement suggests that the issue here concerns facebook's supposed and inherent inability to bring in revenue versus Princeton. Your claim is that Princeton will be around longer than facebook because Princeton can charge a lot for its services and that facebook cannot. I think facebook brought in something like $4 billion last year. I suspect that is at least twice what Princeton brought in for the same time period. No. The issue here largely concerns structure and culture. Facebook's response to this study is essentially of the same species as its response to its user base. 
aweyrother
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aweyrother,
User Rank: Apprentice
1/24/2014 | 4:31:02 PM
Re: Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
I do not think facebook proved the uselessness of statistics. They merely abused statistics in their rejection of an appropriately executed study. Princeton does not claim that facebook will go out of business in three years. It may happen, though it is highly unlikely, that facebook will act to reverse the conditions that now plague its future. Princeton is making the case that should facebook fail to alter its course it will lose 800 million users in three years. The study judges the sea-worthiness of facebook as it exists today.

That will sound ridiculous only until we realize that there are many superior social media outlets already online, and that they are already taking market share from facebook, and that technology is shifting such that many other outlets will pile on in the very near future. When we also consider how simple it is to lose a user (a user may simply stop updating his or her profile, since they are using something else- no fuss no muss), the idea of losing 200 million users in a year becomes not so far-fetched.

I suspect in the last year facebook has seen at least 200 million newly dead accounts in its database. And facebook seems to be responding to the issue with gimmicks, thereby avoiding the fundamental problems that are responsible for its impending demise. Facebook, appears to have cut a deal with Huffpost, for example, in which the latter now forces new users to create facebook accounts. I scarcely think any of those accounts will remain active for long, if at all.
Thomas Claburn
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Thomas Claburn,
User Rank: Author
1/24/2014 | 4:24:22 PM
Re: Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
>I'm willing to bet that Princeton will be around MUCH longer than will Facebook.

Maybe if Facebook figures out how to charge each of its users $40,170 per year, plus $13,080 for a room and meals, it will be able to match Princeton's longevity.
Kristin Burnham
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Kristin Burnham,
User Rank: Author
1/24/2014 | 3:12:03 PM
Re: Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
You really think Facebook will lose more than 800 million users in 3 years? In using the same methodology Princeton did, it was proving the point that statistics can be used to confirm pretty much any theory -- whether it's that the air supply on earth will run out or the most popular website will lose 80% of its users.
DanB491
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DanB491,
User Rank: Apprentice
1/24/2014 | 2:46:52 PM
Re: Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
I'm willing to bet that Princeton will be around MUCH longer than will Facebook.
aweyrother
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aweyrother,
User Rank: Apprentice
1/24/2014 | 2:39:32 PM
Facebook's Rejoinder is Flawed
Facebook is not particularly clever here. Unlike the Princeton's study, facebook's "study" is based on severely flawed assumptions. Facebook merely used classes of data against Princeton that are not at all relevant to Princeton-- data classes that are highly relevant to facebook. I think Princeton is bang on. Facebook is already in serious decline, and innovations outside of facebook will continue to erode its user base.
ukjb
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ukjb,
User Rank: Strategist
1/24/2014 | 1:56:41 PM
facebook is getting worse and worse every day
there's a tiny difference between determining life expecetancy based on popularity of a social networking site (who's existence is based solely on popularty) and a university who's always in high demand. Much less a naturally regenerating resource. But you know... facebook sucks. can't even keep obvious spam off it's system. Don't even care to do anything about it. says a lot about their leadership
David F. Carr
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David F. Carr,
User Rank: Author
1/24/2014 | 1:14:12 PM
Re: Statistics...and Darn Lies
I'm worried about that air thing, though.
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