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What Does 2007 Promise?

Earlier this week, futurist and technology guru Mark Anderson hosted his annual SNS New York dinner, a high-level gathering of VCs, investment bankers, journalists, technology entrepreneurs, and others, at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel.
Earlier this week, futurist and technology guru Mark Anderson hosted his annual SNS New York dinner, a high-level gathering of VCs, investment bankers, journalists, technology entrepreneurs, and others, at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel.Mark opened his annual prognostication fest with the warning, "This is not a speech," and proceeded to offer his thoughts on the current shape of the global economy and technology market. Mark claims that his predictions carry a 93% accuracy rating, so don't be too quick to dismiss him out of hand.

Anderson started with the observation that the US and global economies in 2007 will be defined by three things, "Oil, cheap labor, and money," three things over which the US has no control.

On the technology front, Anderson differentiated between Microsoft, a company that is "making plumbing," and Google, a "river of money." This means that Microsoft makes technology that businesses and consumer need for everyday tasks while Google is sitting on top of a macro-trend as advertising dollars drift online.

Anderson stressed that "plumbing money" is different than ad money and that the differences in money would continue to define these two companies. Countering prevailing thinking, Anderson said that Microsoft isn't going anywhere. He also repeated an earlier warning about Google, calling it one of the "most fragile" financial structures ever.

In terms of the other big tech showdown - Microsoft vs. Apple - Anderson warned that iTunes could start to run out of steam by the end of 2007, thanks in large part to consumer issues with the company's copy protection technology.